The following statistical data are quoted from: Whitehead, Barbara Dafoe and David
Popenoe, The State of Our Unions, 1999. New Brunswick, NJ: National Marriage Project,
Rutgers University. (To obtain a copy of this report please call The National Marriage Project at
732.932.2722).
Americans have become less likely to marry, as reflected by a decline of more than 43
percent from 87.5 in 1960 to 49.7 in 1996, in the annual number of marriages per 1000
unmarried women 15 and older (p. 18).
Since 1973 the General Social Survey periodically has asked representative samples of
married Americans to rate their marriages as either "very happy," "pretty happy," or "not
too happy." The percentage saying "very happy" has declined moderately from 67.4
percent in 1973-76 to 61.9 percent in 1996 (p. 20).
It has been estimated that after 10 years only about 25 percent of first marriages are
successful that is, both still intact and reportedly happy; this represents a substantial
decline from 53.5 percent in 1973-76 to 37.8 percent in 1996 (p. 21).
By the middle of the 1960s the divorce rate increased and more than doubled over the
next 15 years to reach an historical high point in the early 1980s. Since then the divorce
rate has modestly declined. The number of divorces per 1,000 married women age 15 and
older by year are: 9.2 in 1960, 22.6 in 1980, and 19.5 in 1998 (p. 21).
Although a majority of divorced persons eventually remarry, the growth of divorce has
led to a steep increase in the percentage of all adults who are currently divorced. This
percentage, which was only 1.8 percent for males and 2.6 percent for females in 1960,
more than quadrupled from 1960 to 1998 (p. 22).
Overall, the chances remain very high--close to 50 percent--that a marriage started today
will end in either divorce or permanent separation (p. 22).
The likelihood of divorce has varied considerably among different segments of the
American population, being higher for Blacks than for Whites, for instance, and higher in
the West than in other parts of the country. But these and many other variations, such as
in social class level, have been diminishing (p.22).
The trend toward a greater similarity of divorce rates between Blacks and Whites is
largely attributable to the fact that fewer blacks are marrying. Note the following decline
in marriage rates for Blacks--60.35 percent in 1960 and 38.85 percent in 1998; and for
Whites--68.4 percent in 1960 and 58.85 percent in 1998, based on a percentage of all
persons age 15 and older who were married, by race (p.20).
Between 1960 and 1998, the number of unmarried and cohabiting adult couples of the
opposite sex in the United States increased by close to 1000 percent: 439,000 in 1960 to
4,236,000 in 1998 (p. 24).
There is evidence to suggest that couples who live together before marriage are more
likely to break up after marriage than couples who did not live together before marriage
(p. 24).
1. Mike McManus, Marriage Savers, ethics and religion column, May 3, 2000, smart marriages
List Serve of the Coalition for Marriage, Family & Couples Education, Washington, D.C.
